Prediction sure to go wrong: Finals preview and pick

By ASHTON GREWAL | May 31, 2009 |  9 comments

Orlando Magic (+240) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-260): Matchup stats and trends

Remember that sticker Dwight Howard plastered three feet high on the backboard in the 2007 dunk contest? The NBA might want to ask Howard if they can use some of those to cover up LeBron James’ face in all their artwork for the 2009 NBA Finals.

Yes, Superman and the Magic made me – and a few other ignorant fools – look silly by easily dispelling of the league’s best regular season team and, up to the conference finals, best postseason team.

Orlando has knocked off the defending champs and the prematurely appointed 2009 champs in successive rounds. Pretty impressive for a club coached by a man who’s been accused of breathing into a paper bag during crunch time.

Can the Magic actually pull off the hat trick and hoist the NBA title in two weeks’ time?

Let’s break down all the categories and see where we stand afterwards:

Point guard

Rafer Alston is playing better than even Orlando GM Otis Smith could have hoped for. He’s doing a great job limiting turnovers and, at the same time, still pushing the pace to get good looks in transition for the open 3-pointer.

Backup Anthony Johnson doesn’t do anything to hurt you coming off the bench, but the Magic’s real strength is their ability to hand the point position over to small forward Hedo Turkoglu in the fourth quarter.

All that we’ve seen for the Lakers point guards is that Derek Fisher will be out of the league in a year’s time and Jordan Farmar has a bad case of nerves. (Have you seen all the silly travels he’s been called for? It’s a classic case of someone trying too hard and thinking too much at the same time.)

I like what I see from Shannon Brown, but he really shouldn’t play more than 15 or 20 minutes a game.

Edge: Orlando

Shooting guard

Do I really have to write anything here? Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee/Mickael Pietrus?

No contest.

Edge: Lakers

Small forward

As much as you have to love the improvement Trevor Ariza has made to his game, especially his shooting touch, the Magic’s versatility at this position gives them the lead.

Edge: Magic

Big men

This is a tough one.

You know what you’ve got with the Lakers. Pau Gasol is a stud while Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom’s production comes in peaks and valleys.

Dwight Howard was an unstoppable force in the East finals against Cleveland, but the Celtics made him look like a mediocre star (at best) in the previous series.

Howard should do a good job defending Gasol in the low block but I expect Phil Jackson will foresee this and have his All-Star big man catch the ball in the high post.

This will limit Howard’s ability to block shots and at the same time allow Gasol to showcase his passing skills.

Rashard Lewis presents a different type of challenge. I thought Odom’s length would be used to guard Carmelo Anthonybut Jackson left that task to Ariza and Bryant.

When the Lakers go with Gasol and Odom in the frontcourt, Gasol won’t have much – if any help guarding Howard. Odom will have to respect the shooting prowess of Lewis, who lives around the 3-point arc.

If Howard hits his free throws like he did in Game 6 against the Cavs (12 for 16), Orlando gets the check mark in this department. Since I don’t think he’ll continue to shoot at 75 percent clip, I’ll give a mini advantage to the Lakers in a near toss up category.

Edge: Lakers

Intangibles

Phil Jackson gets the nod in the coaching department. I love Stan Van Gundy’s tenacity but Phil’s rings speak for themselves. (If you get close enough to them you can hear them faintly saying, "Kiss me.")

The Lakers’ bench production – or lack thereof – has been an issue all season long. Pietrus, Johnson and Marcin Gortat aren’t household names but they do their jobs when they get on the court.

The leadership and experience factor is where I lean heavily towards the Lakers. Los Angeles went to the Finals last year and lost as favorites to the Celtics. Bryant may not be a great teammate but he commands the attention and respect of his mates in the huddle.

There’s no question the players wearing the Purple and Gold fear Kobe’s glares and tongue lashings like they fear their mama’s wooden spoon.

Edge: Lakers

Alright the home-court advantage, leadership and experience make the Lakers the right choice. Naysayers will quickly point out that the Magic won both regular season meetings against L.A., but don’t forget that injured Magic point guardJameer Nelson was a big factor in both those games.

Van Gundy has really impressed me with his play calling coming out of timeouts. The Magic normally always get good looks on their offensive possessions late in games.

Still, the Lakers have the second best closer I’ve ever seen spin a Spalding. 

Pick: Lakers in seven